
Bank of America SA Macro Outlook for 2023.
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South Africa's 2022 economic performance could be described as M-shaped, with ups in Q1 and Q3 and downs in Q2 and Q4. Even so, it is likely to have managed 2.4% full year growth. In 2023, the forecast is gloomy with persistent blackouts, the effects of high inflation, and cumulative SARB hikes taking their toll on consumption spending. We now estimate real GDP growth at 1% in 2023, down from 1.3% in December and 1.5% in November. Potential benefits of China's re-opening are weighed down by global recession risks and domestic weakness.

